Strategic Farming:
Strategic Farming: Let’s talk crops! Discussed news from the grain markets, FINBIN, USDA, and the Farm Bill
St. Paul, Minn. (01/28/2026) — Low commodity prices and high input costs have squeezed farm finances. We welcomed North Dakota State University Crop Economist Dr. Frayne Olson and Nathan Hulinsky, UMN Extension educator-ag business management. They discussed what they're seeing in the markets, data, and the Farm Bill and their implications for the ag economy.
Nathan Hulinsky began the program with a look at Minnesota’s total agricultural row crop production. He shared 2023, 2024, and 2025 crop production data to demonstrate the scale of each crop produced within the state.
The national rankings for Minnesota crops are impressive: Minnesota grows the fourth-largest corn crop, third-largest soybean crop, tenth-largest hay crop, and third-largest wheat crop. Minnesota is the national leader in sugar beet and oat production, while ranking second overall in dry edible bean production.
Minnesota corn producers broke the 200 bushel ceiling for the first time in 2025 with a yield of 201 bushels per acre on 8.9 million planted acres. The yields of all leading Minnesota acreage crops were strong in 2025 compared to 2023 and 2024 production levels.
While yields are trending up, overall farm profits have been trending down. Minnesota farm financials are closely tracked by the University of Minnesota’s Farm Financial Database (FINBIN) “2024 Minnesota farm profits were the lowest on record going back twenty years,” shared Nathan Hulinsky, “2025 data is not yet finalized. It may show the benefit of increased crop yields but it depends on where input and commodity prices end up”.
Some avenues for financial relief were discussed. Farmer Bridge payments will be made on a per acre amount based on 2025 planted acres, covering up to 35% of the expected loss for the planted crop. Some of the acre payment amounts were: Corn $44.36, soybean $30.88, spring wheat $39.35, and oats $81.75. It is noteworthy that MN is the number one state nationally in oat production.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) passed in July of 2025 had many important changes for crop producers that historically had been addressed in the Farm Bill. All crop commodity reference prices had a 10%-20% increase in the OBBBA over the 2018 Farm Bill.
Sign-up for the Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs is expected to open at the end of the calendar year. However, Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) sign-up is currently open for risk management in dairy production.
The title of Dr. Frayne Olson’s presentation was: “Buckle Up! 2026 Crop Market and Trade Outlook.” He expanded on Nathan Hulinsky’s presentation with a look at domestic and international grain markets.
United States 2025 corn production established a new national record for total bushels, surpassing the previous record yield by 1.7 billion bushels. “To put this in perspective, this corn surplus is about the same as the total annual size of the United States wheat crop”, shared Dr. Olson.
Luckily for corn producers, corn demand is up at least to the degree of increased stocks. Domestic feed uses of corn are strong, even above historical highs in the early 2000s. Ethanol uses show fairly stable corn consumption across recent years. The biggest positive news is from exports. Total U.S. corn exports to the globe are 30% above last marketing year's pace, and last year was a record.
Mexico is the largest customer for U.S. corn and they have increased buying from the U.S. significantly year-over-year. More calves are being fed in Mexico due to the New World screwworm outbreak. Calves which were typically finished on feed in the United States will now need to be finished in Mexico due to the cattle biosecurity blockade.
Soybean market fundamentals were reviewed as well. The crush volume of soybeans in the United States continues to increase year-over-year with existing plants running at capacity and new plants in the Dakotas and other areas which are coming online. This domestic crush increase is good news for soybean producers.
However, the U.S. soybean export market has been soft compared to the last four years. A little more price volatility in soybean markets than in corn markets currently but the chances of a sustained rally for United States soybeans decrease as we enter into the Brazilian harvest season and a sideways trading pattern is predicted.
For more information from University of Minnesota Extension, visit extension.umn.edu/crop-production.
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